藻場のブルーカーボンの現在と課題

Greg Nishihara

長崎大学海洋未来イノベーション機構

藻場のブルーカーボンの現在と課題

Greg Nishihara

長崎大学海洋未来イノベーション機構

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https://gnishihara.github.io/oicn20221111/

What is Blue Carbon?

Brief history of climate change

  • 1827 Jean-Baptiste Joseph Fourier establishes the framework for planetary energy balance (Fourier 1824, 1827)

  • 1859 John Tyndall discovers that CO2 is opaque to infrared light (Tyndall 1861)

  • 1896 Svante Arrhenius calculates the effects of anthropogenic CO2 on global warming (Arrhenius 1896)

First evidence of global warming

  • 1930 - 1950: First evidence of warming (e.g., Callendar 1938)
  • From 1890 to 1935 mean global temperature increased by 0.5°C

Temperature variation from 1901 to 1930.

Fossil fuels drive CO2 increase

  • 1955 Hans Suess shows that fossil carbon is appearing in the atmosphere (Suess 1955).

  • 1957 Roger Revelle showed that the complex chemistry of the oceans reduced the ideal amount of CO2 that could be absorbed (Revelle and Suess 1957).

CO2 added by fossil fuels (Revelle and Suess 1957).

Keeling’s curve

  • 1960 First evidence that CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere are increasing (Charles D. Keeling 1960).
  • Establishes the Mauna Loa CO2 observations in 1958.

Mauna Loa Observatory, Hawaii (Keeling C. D. et al. 2001).

Global Cooling ?

  • 1961 Global cooling was occurring since 1940 (Mitchell 1961).
  • Many agencies, including the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) reported cooling in the 1970s
  • Dust and soot (particulates) from industrial pollution contributed to temporary cooling of the Northern Hemisphere, but no cooling was observable in the Southern Hemisphere.

Hansen, Wigley, and Jones

The effects of CO2 may not be detectable until around the turn of the century (Wigley and Jones 1981).

Detecting CO2-induced climatic change (Wigley and Jones 1981).

J. Hansen et al. (1981) also explains that the effects of increasing atmospheric CO2 will be clear by the 21st century. Jones, Wigley, and Wright (1986) also demonstrated global warming from 1861 to 1984.

Final adjustments

  • Heat island effects of cities were removed from the temperature record.
  • Measurements of microwave radiation to measure the temperature of the middle heights of the atmosphere suggested cooling(National Research Council 2000), but were later discredited (Santer et al. 2003).
  • 1990s showed a drop in global temperatures, which was attributed to the 1991 Pinatubo volcanic eruption (James Hansen et al. 1992).

Indirect evidence

  • Unfolding of leaves advanced by 6 days, leaf coloring delayed by 5 days, average growing increased by 11 days (Menzel and Fabian 1999).
  • Seasonal decrease in CO2 due to photosynthesis was occurring earlier, by almost one week (C. D. Keeling, Chin, and Whorf 1996).
  • Minimum temperatures increasing twice as fast as maximum temperatures, precipitation is increasing, atmospheric water vapor is increasing, extreme hydrological events are increasing (Easterling et al. 2000).

Hockey stick

The hockey-stick figure (Mann, Bradley, and Hughes 1999).

  • 1999 The famous hockey-stick figure of global temperatures (Mann, Bradley, and Hughes 1999) that was also featured in the 2001 IPCC report on climate change.

The oceans are warming

The heat content of the oceans (Levitus et al. 2000).

  • Heat content of the oceans increased by 2 × 1023 J between 1950 to 1990, upper 300m increased by 0.31°C (Levitus et al. 2000).
  • The heat content of the oceans is the best measure of global temperature change.

What is Blue Carbon?

Blue Carbon is carbon that is stored in coastal and marine ecosystems.

The greenhouse effect

Greenhouse effect mechanism

  • The total energy budget of the earth is dominated by solar energy.
  • However, 30% of solar energy is reflected into space.
  • Solar energy reaching the earth surface is absorbed and re-radiated as infrared radiation.
  • Infrared radiation is released into the atmosphere and some escapes into space.
  • Greenhouse gases in the atmosphere absorb and emits infrared radiation, which leads to warming.

Greenhouse gases

Four major components

  • Water vapor (35 ~ 72%)
  • Carbon dioxide (9 ~ 26%)
  • Methane (4 ~ 9%)
  • Ozone (3 ~ 7%)

Other components

  • Nitrous oxide (N2O), perfluorocarbons (PFC), chlorofluorocarbons (CFC), hydrofluorocarbons (HFC), sulfur hexafluoride (SF6)

Global warming potential (GWP)

Gas Lifetime (years) 100-year GWP
CO2 1000s 1
CH4 11.8 21 ~ 40
N2O 109 265 ~ 310
PFC 52 6630 ~ 7380
CFC 52 4660 ~ 6226
HFC-134a 14 1300 ~ 1526
HFC-23 222 12400 ~ 14800
SF6 3200 22800 ~ 23500

Carbon sinks and flows

Definition

Carbon sink: A process, activity, or mechanism that removes a greenhouse gas, aerosol, or a precursor from the atmosphere.

Carbon source: A process, activity, or mechanism that releases a greenhouse gas, aerosol, or a precursor into the atmosphere.

Major carbon sources and sinks

  • Fossil fuel emissions
  • Steel and cement production
  • Land use change
    • Burning of grasslands and forests
    • De-forestation
    • Land-reclamation

Fossil fuels contribute the most carbon

Y2020 emissions

  • Coal 40%
  • Oil 32%
  • Gas 21%
  • Cement 5%

Carbon fluxes in the ecosystem

Seaweed POC and DOC includes alginates, xylans, and sulphated polysaccharides that resist microbial decomposition (Trevathan-Tackett et al. 2015; Pedersen et al. 2021).

eDNA of seaweeds have been found in marine sediments and in 2000 year-old sediments (Zaborska et al. 2018; Ortega et al. 2019; Ortega, Geraldi, and Duarte 2020; Frigstad et al. 2021).

Ecosystem perspective

Nature-based climate solutions

Nature-based climate solutions (i.e., preserving and enhancing carbon removal and storage by ecosystems) can contribute to reducing the effects of global warming (Matthews et al. 2022).

Seaweed aquaculture

  • Seaweed aquaculture is growing at 6.2% yr-1
  • 2050 projection
    • 5.5 Tg CO2 yr-1
    • 187 Mt FW yr-1 food demand (5.3 gdw person-1 day-1 Japan standard)
    • 160 Mt FW yr-1 animal feed (1 % of feed contributed by seaweed)
  • Blue carbon potential varies with species and location (Sato et al. 2022).

Case study: Northern Ireland

Saccharina latissima (カラフトコンブ) (Dolliver and O’Connor 2022).

  • Net primary production (NPP) of at most 4000 g C m-1 cultivation rope (100 m).
  • Average harvested biomass contains about 15.8 g C m-2 cultivation area.
  • 41% of NPP lost to blade fall-off (detached from cultivation rope)
    • 4% (2 kg C / longline) sequestered in continental sediments
    • 10% (5.4 kg C / longline) sequestered in deep sea
  • 43% of NPP lost to exudation (DOC)
  • 0.2% of NPP lost to blade erosion (POC)
  • Sequester potential of 120 g C / m

Case study: Northern Ireland

Saccharina latissima (カラフトコンブ) (Dolliver and O’Connor 2022).

Criticisms

What is Blue Carbon?

  • Carbon captured by the marine ecosystem.
  • Carbon in the marine ecosystem exists in the form of
    • Algae and plant biomass
    • Microbial biomass
    • Animal biomass
    • CaCO3, CO2, HCO3, and CO3
  • Blue Carbon is temporary and will only delay the effects of global warming if we continue to use fossil fuels.

Definitions from an ecosystem perspective

Anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions

These are emissions that are caused by changes to the ecosystem due to human activity. For example, the loss of forests can lead to the release of carbon trapped in the sediments. These are emissions that could be prevented by appropriate management action.

Blue carbon

The carbon sequestered and stored in coastal and oceanic ecosystems.

Carbon cycle

The flow of carbon through the biosphere, lithosphere, and atomosphere. Processes drive carbon flow are photosynthesis, calcification, dissolution, metabolic respiration, and decomposition.

Carbon flux

The transfer of carbon from one reservoir to another.

Carbon reservoir

A part of the climate system, excluding the atmosphere, that can store, accumulate, and release carbon, greenhouse gases, or a precursor. Also known as a carbon pool. The quantity stored in the carbon reservoir is known as the carbon stock.

Carbon sink

A process, activity, or mechanism that removes a greenhouse gas, aerosol, or a precursor from the atmosphere.

Carbon source

A process, activity, or mechanism that releases a greenhouse gas, aerosol, or a precursor into the atmosphere.

Carbon uptake and sequestration

Carbon uptake is the addition of carbon into a carbon reservoir. Also called carbon sequestration. These processes should remove carbon on times0-scales of at least decades, and also should have an impact on atmospheric levels of greenhouse gases.

Greenhouse gases

Natural and anthropogenic gases that absorb and emit radiation that causes the greenhouse effect.

The primary greenhouse gases are:

  • Water vapor (H2O)
  • Carbon dioxide (CO2)
  • Nitrous oxide (N2O)
  • Methane (CH4)
  • Ozone (O3)

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